Fantasy Preview: Qatar Grand Prix

Formula 1 returns to Qatar for the final Sprint weekend of the season and a critical juncture for F1 Fantasy strategists. Max Verstappen clinched his fourth World Drivers’ Championship at Las Vegas, meanwhile the Global and F1 Live leagues could be decided this weekend. Let’s review the top F1 Fantasy storylines ahead of the penultimate race of the 2024 season.

Chip Considerations

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Over a quarter of the Top 500 teams in the Global League still hold their 3X DRS Boost. This weekend’s Sprint provides the last high-upside opportunity to deploy the 3X Boost and a range of 3X/2X combinations stand out to start the week. The McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri top the list after a double podium here in 2023. Norris opens as the favorite to win the Grand Prix after back-to-back P6 finishes, while Piastri lines up with the third best odds after Norris and newly-minted champion, Max Verstappen.

For teams with a larger budget, the combination of Verstappen and Vegas winner, George Russell, presents an intriguing alternative. Finishing P1 and P4, respectively, in 2023 Russell qualified on the front row and finished among the top 5 in the Sprint. Mercedes carry a brief but strong record at this circuit, with Lewis Hamilton winning this race in 2021.

Since Sprint weekends include two races for drivers to lose places or suffer the dreaded 20-point DNF penalty, No Negative is also a reasonable play this weekend. For the few that held on to Limitless, consider Verstappen, Norris, Piastri, Hamilton, and Russell with Red Bull and McLaren to start this week.

Ferrari Frustrations

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Notably excluded from the top chip options, Ferrari enter the weekend with a troubling history at this circuit and tensions still high from Las Vegas. Sportsbooks currently list Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz after both McLarens, both Mercedes, and Verstappen for the race win at 10/1. The Scuderia struggled here in 2023, with Leclerc finishing P5 in the Grand Prix while Sainz withdrew just one hour before the formation lap due to a fuel system issue.

Speaking to reporters after qualifying P2 in Las Vegas, Sainz’s concern about Qatar was evident. “We are going to Qatar next which will not be a good track for us – we will struggle there”, Sainz warned. At the end of the weekend he added, “In Qatar, the maximum could be a P5 or P6 because with this car on a track like that, I expect McLaren and Mercedes to be very strong.”

Consider replacing Ferrari (88% selected by Top 500) with Mercedes and bringing in either Oscar Piastri or George Russell in place of Charles Leclerc.

Live Scoring Debuts in Las Vegas

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F1 Fantasy revealed a shocking new innovation for Las Vegas: projected points. For Qualifying and the Grand Prix, scores were updated in real time as the action unfolded. Lagging categories such as overtakes, Driver of the Day, and Fastest Pit Stop were excluded from these projections, however Lando Norris was credited with the Fastest Lap within seconds of posting his final lap.

The current responses to the F1 Fantasy Community Survey reveal an overwhelming desire for live scoring, so this step by F1 brings hope that the game will continue to improve heading into 2025. The survey will remain open until Abu Dhabi, so if you have yet to complete it we kindly ask that you share your opinions here.

Weather

Excruciating heat and schedule regionalization pushed this race back from early October to December 1^st. Temperatures for this week are projected to be nearly 20 degrees lower than last season, so we should expect fewer heat-related mistakes and reliability failures.

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Three Lineups for Three Budgets

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$125M

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Cheating a bit since this costs $125.1M but bear with me. This lineup avoids the concerns with Ferrari and capitalizes on the driver favored at the start of the week (Norris) and the most recent race winners (Russell). I prefer Zhou over Albon due to the recent performance gap between the two. If you strictly need to follow the $125M budget, Piastri slots in nicely for Lando.

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$129M

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My preferred lineup entering the week is consistent with a high upside this weekend. Alternatively, you could run Russell and Hulkenberg over Piastri and Zhou. Hulkenberg has logged four top-ten finishes in his last five races and his 17 fantasy points in Las Vegas were the most since Austria.

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$134M

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This lineup introduces a slight upgrade over the triple McLaren build in the $129M range. If you totally want to avoid Williams, Gaslyand Tsunoda just fit in under the budget in place of Hulkenberg and Colapinto.

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For teams using the 3X DRS Boost and need a differential lineup, the Verstappen/Piastri duo packs a punch. The warmer temperatures should bring McLaren and Red Bull back into the fight this weekend and these two are poised to reap the benefits.

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The Fantasy Formula returns to answer your lineup questions ahead of the Sprint race this Saturday at 8AM EST/1PM GMT only on the official FanAmp YouTube channel. Be sure to head over to the FanAmp app to share your lineup in The Fantasy Formula base and have it reviewed during the broadcast. See you there!

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