Fantasy Preview: Japanese Grand Prix

DSQ Confusion

A late tweak to the rules led to unexpected penalties for Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, Pierre Gasly, and their respective constructors. The original F1 Fantasy rules suggested that drivers would not be subject to a disqualification penalty, leaving many to believe that drivers would score 0 points for any event at which they were disqualified.

Shortly after Qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix, F1 Fantasy added the following footnote to the bottom of the rulebook. It clarified that disqualified drivers would receive the 20-point DNF/NC penalty and their constructor would receive a stiff 30-point penalty per disqualification.

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To make matters worse, Lewis Hamilton vacated his Fastest Lap and Ferrari vacated their Fastest Pit Stop. In both cases, the second place time inherited the award. Fred Vasseur predicts that more disqualifications await as teams push their cars to the limit of the rules:

“So certainly, the more pressure we’re under, the more intense the battle, the more we need to get close to these limits and the more risks we take.” - Fred Vasseur (courtesy of Planet F1)

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Price Change Algorithm Revisited

The post-China price change for several drivers fell short of expectations, including Max Verstappen, Yuki Tsunoda, and Kimi Antonelli. The F1 Fantasy Tools Discord quickly determined that the PPM thresholds increased for China and many expect the thresholds to increase one more time for Japan. The F1 Fantasy Tools Budget Builder for Japan assumes PPM limits of 0.6-0.9-1.2.

Despite the increase, several drivers stand to earn the maximum price gain even if they disappoint this weekend: Lando Norris (7), Lance Stroll (1), Esteban Ocon (-2), and Ollie Bearman (3).

Our 2025 Cost Cap Guide has been updated to reflect the latest understanding of how performance ratings are calculated:

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The Unluckiest Suzuka Record

Alex Albon heads to Japan on a two-race points scoring streak, but he looks to end a string of bad luck at the Japanese Grand Prix. Albon retired in each of the last three races at Suzuka, all due to collisions, and two of which came on the very first lap. With Albon (27%) and Williams (33%) among the most selected assets in the game, conservative strategists may want to avoid the Thai-British driver until he breaks his Suzuka curse.

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Weather Outlook

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As it stands now, the forecasted rain for Sunday will fall after the Grand Prix so players can continue to hold No Negative and Autopilot. The cooler temperature plays into the historical strength of Mercedes, so Russell and Antonelli may contend for a podium once again.

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Betting Lines

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After back-to-back wins to start the season, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are essentially a toss up for the race win according to BetMGM - fantasy strategists should feel comfortable with either McLaren as their DRS Boosted driver. The current lines for Russell and the two Ferrari drivers suggests that the early season pace of Mercedes will continue this weekend. Tsunoda sits on a very bullish +3300, better than the current P2 in F1 Fantasy scoring, Kimi Antonelli.

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Driver and Constructor Tier List

The top lineup foundations this week include McLaren and Mercedes, the two top scoring constructors to start the season. Ferrari's disqualification penalties ensure all three assets remain in the Sell category for the near future. Several assets enter the weekend with a strong chance of earning $0.6M so Ocon, Hulkenberg, and Stroll remain in the Buy category while the Haas and Racing Bulls constructor graduate to firm Buy candidates.

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The Fantasy Formula returns to answer your lineup questions one hour before the start of Qualifying, this Saturday at 1AM EST/6AM BST, only on the official FanAmp YouTube channel. Be sure to head over to the FanAmp app to share your lineup in The Fantasy Formula base and have it reviewed during the broadcast. See you there!

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