Fantasy Preview: Italian Grand Prix

Ferrari’s Fight to the Top

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Ferrari enter the week in the midst of a monthslong recovery after a disastrous wave of upgrades at the Spanish Grand Prix. Leclerc secured his second consecutive P3 finish at Zandvoort and held off a surging Oscar Piastri, providing a glimmer of hope for the Tifosi. He’s scored 20 or more fantasy points in three consecutive races, while the Ferrari constructor outscored Mercedes in back-to-back races (once due George’s Russell’s DSQ and once on merit).

Crucially, Leclerc confirmed Ferrari intend to bring upgrades this weekend with the hopes of challenging for another podium. The Ferrari duo finished P3/P4 in 2023 and P2/P4 in 2022, and these critical Tier B assets may feature on more teams this week.

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Sargeant’s F1 Fate at Stake

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After a huge shunt in FP3 wrote off another car at Zandvoort, speculation of a midseason replacement for Logan Sargeant grew louder. While Williams have already announced they will part ways with Sargeant at the end of the season, James Vowles may opt to limit costly accidents by replacing Sargeant before the season ends. While Toto Wolff ruled out an early F1 debut for Kimi Antonelli, Mick Schumacher’s ties to Mercedes vault him to the top of the list of potential replacements.

Selected on 24% of teams for his budget enabling, Sargeant remains a popular back marker, however he failed to score more than 5 fantasy points in 10 straight races. His replacement would likely come in at the same price tag (currently $4.8M) and require a transfer – an important element to consider when setting a lineup that includes Sargeant this week.

If Sargeant remains on the grid, an upside remains for fantasy strategists: last season his lowest price reached $4.5M and the game never decreased it further despite multiple poor performances. If the same price floor exists in the 2024 game, Sargeant would stop bleeding value and stand out compared to the other back markers.

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Monza History

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Max Verstappen won the last two races at Monza, but an incident with Lewis Hamilton in 2021 opened the door for Daniel Ricciardo to take the victory. Over the last four Italian Grands Prix, only Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez finished in the top 10 in every race due to an eye-opening 13 DNFs from 2020 to 2022.

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Fresh off a solid P9 finish last weekend, Pierre Gasly celebrated his first F1 victory at Monza in 2020 in the same race that Lance Stroll finished P3. Sticking with the midfield, a Williams driver has recorded a top 10 finish in each of the last 3 years on a circuit that typically suits their car.

Despite its reputation as a fast circuit, Monza ranked among the bottom five tracks for overtakes in each of the last two seasons (both dry races!). For fantasy strategists, correctly selecting the race winner and avoiding DNFs will be paramount this weekend.

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Weather

Expect generally good conditions for the weekend, with partly cloud skies and high temperatures tempered slightly by light rain on race day.

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Three Lineups for Three Budgets

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$115M

This lineup pairs the red-hot Lando Norris and a strong midfield with a strong history at Monza. This lineup provides little wiggle room to bring in the Ferrari constructor without downgrading Tsunoda all the way to a Sauber or Logan Sargeant.

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$120M

The cheapest point of entry for triple McLaren, this lineup sticks with Mercedes and runs Alex Albon on a circuit he thrives at.

Triple McLaren with Ferrari brings even more risk, with double Sauber and Sargeant, but the papaya car looks so good it may be worth it.

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$125M

Lewis Hamilton had a strong recovery run at Zandvoort after a poor Qualifying and subsequent penalty. A Lando/Lewis build with high-upside midfield drivers is possible at this budget – and I also discovered a glitch that temporarily allows two 2X drivers!

This second build resembles the Ferrari lineup in the $115M range, upgrading Zhou for Gasly.

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The Fantasy Formula show returns with the Weekend Preview on Wednesday, August 28th, only on FanAmp's official YouTube channel.

Then tune in Saturday, August 31st at 9AM EST/2PM BST for the Deadline Live Stream where we'll answer all your questions before lineups lock. Be sure to head over to the FanAmp app to share your lineup in The Fantasy Formula base and have it reviewed during the broadcast. See you there!