McLaren’s Meta Shakeup
In late June, Lando Norris posted his two best fantasy results of the season: 40 points in Canada and 51 points in Spain. Over the four races since, however, Oscar Piastri outscored Norris 156 to 135, leading some to question if Lando is still the must-own McLaren driver moving forward. With a Tier B price $2.7M cheaper than his teammate, Piastri gained $2.0M in value over his last five races - second to only Lewis Hamilton.
The 10-point Driver of the Day bonus helped Norris stand out earlier in the season, especially during a stretch in which he won the award six times in seven races. The honor eluded Norris in the last three outings before the summer break, opening the door for Piastri and other Tier B assets to outscore him. With another $1.4M in price growth, Piastri will join Norris in Tier A, so select the Australian sophomore to start the second half and build your cost cap.
Russell on the Rebound
Russell's disqualification at the Belgian Grand Prix sent shockwaves through the F1 Fantasy universe and sent many strategists into the break on a low note. Teams that ran Russell may consider moving on from him, but should consider the terrible luck George faced over his last three races:
- At Silverstone, he qualified on pole only to retire due to a suspected water issue. He finished with -9 fantasy points.
- On a drying track at the Hungaroring, Russell posted his Q1 flying lap too soon and opened the door for the midfield to pass him on the timing sheets. After qualifying P17, George moved up the grid to finish P8 and logged 27 points - the third most on the grid.
- Russell crossed the line P1 at Spa before his disqualification due to a car weight violation. His provisional 35 fantasy points were later replaced with a crushing -21.
In each of these cases, Russell proved he had pace and only factors outside his control limited his fantasy output. His teammate, Lewis Hamilton, went on to win two of the three races above as further proof that the rejuvenated W15 is a top contender. George already used up his bad luck at Zandvoort last season when he suffered a puncture and finished P17. Pairing Russell with a McLaren driver brings both points and cost cap upside this week.
Zandvoort History
Last year's Dutch Grand Prix provided an astounding 240 overtakes, the most in a single race in F1 history. Rain on Lap 1 triggered a split strategy amongst the teams as nearly half the grid remained on slicks while the other half boxed for Intermediate tires. While the rain continued to fall, drivers that changed tires made a flurry of overtakes, while those that kept the slick tires enjoyed a huge run back up the grid when the track dried a few laps later. Fernando Alonso led all drivers with 62 fantasy points thanks to 15 overtakes while Esteban Ocon set an F1 Fantasy record with 19 overtakes.
When we consider that Zandvoort ranked among the lowest circuits for overtakes in 2022 and 2023, last season's thriller seems to be an outlier. For circuits with low overtakes, drivers that qualify high such as Nico Hulkenberg and Yuki Tsunoda stand out, while overtake leaders Kevin Magnussen and Lance Stroll may struggle this week.
Max Verstappen won the last three races at this circuit, while Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton are the only other drivers with multiple top-5 finishes since 2020. Interestingly, Pierre Gasly took his only podium of 2023 at Zandvoort and turned heads with a P4 finish with Alpha Tauri in 2021. Some midfield drivers excel at certain venues (Daniel Ricciardo at Mexico comes to mind), so consider the Alpine veteran with your final lineup spots.
Weather
Scattered showers throughout the week will usher in lower temperatures by Friday. While the weather expects to be clear for Sunday, rain during Qualifying could lead to some surprises in the grid order. On a circuit with minimal overtaking, the Final Fix chip may be in play if a top driver finds himself out in Q1.
Three Lineups for Three Budgets
$115M
This lineup rolls back Lando Norris with the powerful McLaren and Mercedes constructors. Moving from Norris to Piastri ($2.7M cheaper) or Ocon to Gasly in light of his success at this circuit ($1.9M cheaper) provides enough cost cap space to upgrade Bottas. Another popular alternative to Ocon, Daniel Ricciardo has gained $0.5M in five of the last six races in an improved RB. Tsunoda and Hulkenberg qualify high and may provide a few points from the midfield as well.
$120M
A similar but upgraded lineup, this team introduces the "two Tier B" approach with Piastri and Russell. A popular lineup for Spa that dealt plenty of heartbreak for those that ran it, sticking with this lineup should yield dividends this weekend. Remember, after a torturous outing at Monaco, the Haas drivers quickly established themselves as the top midfield options in the game - this sport forgets quickly.
$125M
Finally, despite the recent success of Mercedes, McLaren still bring the fastest car each weekend and a triple McLaren build stands out. The Autopilot chip begins to factor in with two standout options and less certainty around which one will score the most points. For less McLaren exposure, replacing Norris with Hamilton frees up an extra $2.2M and this lineup would then feature the two top price gainers over the last five races.
The Fantasy Formula show returns to it's normal schedule starting with the Weekend Preview on Monday August 19th, only on FanAmp's official YouTube channel.
Then tune in Saturday, August 24th at 8AM EST/1PM BST for the Deadline Live Stream where we'll answer all your questions before lineups lock. Be sure to head over to the FanAmp app to share your lineup in The Fantasy Formula base and have it reviewed during the broadcast. See you there!
