It's an open secret that whoever sits in the 2025 Stake seat will set the tone for the entry of Audi into Formula 1 in 2025. The German Manufacturer's new leadership thus far mirrors their championship ambitions, but the talent must be there to match.
When it comes down to it, the first point of consideration for almost every motorsports series, let alone team, is money. How much will everything cost? Power unit supply 'in house' versus a technical partnership? New facilities? Staff?
Even if teams and drivers in Formula 1 do not outwardly admit it, money matters when it comes to EVERY driver decision. Do the sponsors they bring in, points that they earn, fanbase spend, and marketing dollars outweigh their contract cost and potential technical risk factors (crashes and damage)?
For Audi, this is even more precarious. Unlike the Sauber outfits of the past - Red Bull-Sauber, BMW-Sauber, Alfa Romeo (retaining Sauber leadership), and Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber- the Audi Group will complete a FULL takeover of Sauber. The change is not just in name, but in-house technology including power units.
While this may all sound exciting, it's important to remember the timeline of the Audi takeover. Audi first began investing in the Sauber team in 2022 with complete ownership by March 2024... but what do they have to show for it? Team leadership choices were only finalized with the announcement of Jonathan Wheatley in August of 2024 and Mattia Binotto one week prior.
Nearly two years of acquisition and an entirely new leadership team has JUST been announced. This is the same leadership that has already announced expected performance gaps and a predicted 'back foot' start for the 2026 season...
Both Mattia Binotto and Jonathan Wheatley have a MONSTER task in front of them - building up a new F1 team. Not from scratch, per-se... but when you factor in the performance of the Swiss - Stake team, it is clear that there is much work to be done so that the team doesn't enter in 2026 in 10th place.
Audi's focus has been firmly set on assembling a team that balances technical expertise with long-term potential. Mattia, the Team Principal turned Chief Operations and Technical Officer. Wheatley, sporting director turned Team Principal. Nico Hulkenberg, the winless but seasoned F1 veteran.
When asked about selecting a driver for the 2025 season by F1, Binotto said:
“It’s certainly a top priority because we need to decide as soon as we can, but we need as well to make the proper choice. Now we have a list of drivers available and we can certainly take our time to discuss with all of them and to listen and to make the best for Sauber and Audi.
“Our journey is looking to the next years, it’s not only 2025 so when assessing the choice, we need to look at what is best knowing what we need to achieve in the future."
While Mattia and the rest of Audi leadership presumably has 80% of their attention on 2026, this does leave the present Stake outfit in a precarious position for 2025. It has been expressed by members of the team that they are looking for a driver to bridge the transition alongside Nico Hulkenberg and remain for at least the first season with Audi in 2026.
However, on the other side of this argument, Binotto has expressed that he will rarely travel to F1 races in 2025, opting to spend most of his time in the Swiss and German facilities overseeing 2026 development and testing. This DOES, in fact, feed the opinion that 2025 is a 'throwaway' season for Stake and Audi. And on that note, will their decision also factor in Audi's corporate desire to strengthen their global branding - as stated at the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?
Let's start with what F1 pundits are calling the 'obvious' and 'safe' choice of Valterri Bottas. Bottas is the current and senior driver for Stake with 10 F1 race wins to his name.
If we glance at the three top players of Binotto, Wheatley, and Hulkenberg, Audi has given us a glimpse into their key focus when making personnel decisions: Experience.
Valterri offers 12 seasons of Formula 1 experience from 3 different teams, but most importantly championship winning Mercedes. If you're newer to the sport, its important to recognize that F1 drivers, especially with experience in the sport, do not just show up and drive the car. With this level of experience comes an intense techincal knowledge of WHAT makes an F1 car fast. This was even said to be the reason why ex- F1 Driver Daniel Ricciardo was retained by Red Bull Racing in 2023 and part of 2024.
However, while Valterri offers leaps and bounds of race-winning experience... Nico Hulkenberg can offer nearly the same with 13 years of F1 racing experience - minus the race wins, of course. Would Audi need to double up on that experience and sacrifice other factors?
Despite Bottas' potential as a safe pair of hands during the transitional year, it has been speculated that his demands for a long-term contract and higher salary could be sticking points for the team. With this wealth of experience, comes a price tag and from the sponsor and fanbase side, this cost may not be worth the spend.
You're only as good as your last drive. That is a mantra many F1 drivers, Team Principals and team owners live by. When it comes to Bottas, he has not delivered the results expected of him for the 2024 season - even when considering the state of the Stake car.
When asked about Bottas in August, Binotto said:
"Valtteri [Bottas] is doing well, and certainly I have already [had] some discussions with him. A good first impression but, having said that, there are many drivers on the list and we need as Audi to take our time to assess what is best. And hopefully soon we come to a decision.”
However, it has been reported that as the months continue and other, younger contenders have emerged for the seat, Audi leadership has considered the financial investment and contract demands of Bottas to make him a 'weaker' contender for the seat.
Gabriel Bortoleto, managed by Fernando Alonso's young driver talent agency, has come out of the woodwork as a top contender for the Stake/ Audi seat. He is considered one of the most exciting young drivers and has been dubbed a "prodigy" by the likes of Alonso. Is Audi ready to take this chance on a rookie?
Flat out, when stacked up against the competition, Bortoleto.... is not competition to the likes of Valterri Bottas' 11 seasons in Formula 1. On the other hand, Bortaleto IS currently leading the F2 championship and is backed by Formula 1 legend Fernando Alonso.
While Bortoleto has few sponsors to name, the potential benefits of signing a Brazilian driver also could be significant. Think the likes of fan support rivaling that of Sergio Perez in Mexico. Brazilian fans and fan culture, as well as the strong financial backing of Brazilian companies is a HUGE positive for bringing in sponsors and additional monetary support to the new F1 team.
As a marketer, it would be remiss to not acknowledge that bringing in a young, exciting talent with an existing fanbase to a new team would skyrocket support for that team from Day 1. When you ALSO consider that Bortaleto would drive for Stake in 2025, not just Audi in 2026, that fan support and potential sponsors will have grown exponentially by the 2026 season.
Bortoleto has no F1 race experience, unlike most of the rookies joining the grid next year (save Kimi Antonelli). Part of that reason trickles down to his presence in the McLaren Driver Academy - an outfit RIFE with young talent and a reserve driver Pato O'Ward who is a seasoned IndyCar driver. Luckily, McLaren has expressed that they would release Bortaleto if Stake/Audi will take him. That does not necessarily mean he'll get the F1 seat, but there are rumors that he would be the reserve driver (replacing Theo Pourchaire) as a secondary option.
...and as we know, reserve drivers have been getting their share of the action in the 2024 season.
Franco Colapinto's name is a new one to the race for this final seat. His name has admittedly come up in discussions between Williams and Sauber for a 2-year loan deal. Williams' Team Principal admitted as much in an interview with the Wall Street Journal:
“So, Franco will always be a part of the academy in our programme, irrespective, anyway. What he will be next year is if Audi don’t take him, and for transparency, we are in conversations to see if that is a route for him, where he could be on the grid with them for two years.”
Colapinto was NEARLY in the same boat as Bortoleto... and frankly wouldn't have been in the conversation at all if it weren't for his mid-season replacement of Williams Driver Logan Sargeant. And boy... has he proven his worth.
In the only 3 Formula 1 races that Colapinto has driven in, he has both scored points and finished JUST outside of the points, each time performing on par with his seasoned teammate Alex Albon.
While Franco still does not have 11 seasons of technical and racing experience, he has proven that he is quick... Which, when paired with a seasoned driver of Nico Hulkenberg, can be the perfect combination of experience, stability, and talent.
Similar to Bortaleto, Colapinto brings in the immense fanbase and a number of sponsors from fellow South American country, Argentina. Except, when it comes to Franco, we have seen a bit of that with his short stint in Williams.
James Vowles admitted that he physically came to them with no sponsor money, but that quickly changed:
"Actually, we signed him at the point of not knowing anything in future. What then transpired, and it hasn’t finished yet, the phone is still ringing off the hook, is a number of Argentine companies, of which there are many, are calling, and they’re paying market rate for stickers on the car fundamentally."
If Franco does not get the Stake/ Audi seat for 2025, he ultimately will not have a drive in Formula 1 (at least as it stands). There have been rumors of Red Bull's interest in the young Argentine driver, but I will not bring up THAT conversation... and conspiracy theory... here.
I'll keep this a short answer - probably not.
Theo has been exploring other series, including largely popular American series, IndyCar. He, also, is rumored to be replaced by the Brazilian Bortoleto as reserve driver for Stake / Audi if Bottas or another contender take the remaining F1 seat.
Zhou Guanyu, according to Raif Schumacher, was only retained for the 2024 season due to financial reasons and to 'level the ship'. Ultimately, Bottas consistently outperforms the Guanyu, and with Audi moving all operations in-house (losing the need for certain technical sponsors), his additional financial backing may lose its power, unfortunately.
Mick Schumacher is truthfully a name thrown around every time an F1 seat decision is unclear. While this does bring in starpower and financial backing of the Schumacher name, Mick has not driven in F1 since 2022 and did not 'wow' teams with that performance to say the least. Although much of that could be blamed on Haas, signing Mick would be a long shot in my eyes.
With Mattia Binotto making the final decision on the 2025 line-up, the choice will likely hinge on his choice of balance between short-term gains (2025) and long-term development (2026 and beyond).
Bottas' experience makes him a reasonable choice if Audi wants a reliable driver during their transition, but his contract demands and performance inconsistencies may push the team to explore younger talent.
Colapinto and Bortoleto represent the future of F1, but both come with risks. If Audi is willing to take a chance on youth, Bortoleto’s backing from Alonso, potential financial contributions, and McLaren’s green light might give him the edge.
The answer? Gabriel Bortoleto seems like the most likely candidate. His lack of F1 experience is a concern, but Audi could use the 2025 season as a learning year before the full takeover in 2026. While Franco Colapinto is also in the mix, his uncertain financial backing and strong ties to Williams make his move to Sauber less likely.
