Japanese GP: Bet Report

This weekend presents some challenges to our approach with the many variances in store for us…including potential for rain on race day.  We’re still finding discrepancies in the betting markets and our core team has some early wagers going into the weekend. 

The consensus is still Max > Ferrari=McLaren > Merc > Aston Martin as what to expect in terms of hierarchy for the race.

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Betting Analysis

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F1capper

‍Norris Top 3 (+275)  

Taking this up to risk to $1.00 to win $2.75 (+275/3.75)

• Opening odds are at best +250 at some places while most are +200.  Between some price value and MCL performance at mid/high speed tracks (only 1 DRS zone) will give them a fight with Ferrari for Top 3..  Only hesitation is potential weather coming on race day that could make the track green again and potential for rain during the race. Rain brings lots of variance that can shake up the field but the betting odds value and track performance alignment is worth the risk.

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LightsOutF1Bets

Max to win FP1 “NO” (-125)

Taking this up to risk $1.25 to win $1 (-125/1.80)

• The trend with Max/Redbull thus far in FP1 has been using the session to truly test the car with different setups.  It’s early season still and the team is still identifying opportunities within the setup as they learn new track features with the RB20. This combined with the risk of rain/cooler weather adds some variance.  Any one of the top teams can stick it in P1 in FP1 giving good odds on “NO” for Max to win FP1.

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Renegade

Leclerc Top 3 (-110) 

Taking this up to risk $1.10 to win $1.00 (-110/1.91)

• Had good race pace at Melbourne despite being put on the worse strategy by Ferrari. Has had the edge over Perez/Sainz here in recent years. Sainz is way too short at odds on and an overreaction to a race win given to him nearly on a plate.

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The Japanese Grand Prix is shaping up to be a thriller!  With high tire degradation rates expected on any tire compound, drivers will need to tread carefully around Suzuka's iconic high-speed corners. As a two-stop strategy seems likely, the undercut – gaining an advantage by pitting just before a rival – could be a critical weapon in the fight for victory.  Buckle up, because this race promises strategic battles and a test of driver skill on one of Formula 1's most demanding circuits.

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