Red Bull Racing has been at the center of the driver discussions this year. With rumors swirling all season long about a Checo and Daniel swap IMMINENT, after nearly every race. So, let's break down the Red Bull Racing side of the driver market.

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What are the facts?

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1. MANY rumors have been circulating - all pointing to the same thing - Checo was going to lose his seat to either Daniel Ricciardo or Liam Lawson. This would leave Max Verstappen with a new teammate for the second half of the 2024 season.
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2. These rumors were put to bed on Monday, July 29th in an official statement to the Red Bull Racing team - Checo would keep his seat in 2024
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3. Checo's contract has exit clauses that can be exercised by either Checo himself OR Red Bull Racing (same goes for most drivers in Formula 1).
   
   

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Why did people think that Daniel Ricciardo would replace Sergio Perez this season?

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With the silly season now in full swing the biggest shock of the break arrived on day one from Milton Keynes. The rumors had been swilling of a driver change for both of the Red Bull Teams (Red Bull Racing and VCARB), heading into the break. While they were only rumors, they were certainly not unsubstantiated - with many reliable sources also pointing to the same thing:

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Checo was going to lose his seat no matter what. The bigger conversation was: Which one out of Daniel Ricciardo or Liam Lawson would be selected as Max’s new teammate?

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The social media posts seemed to point to a Max and Daniel reunion... Even the last images of the Belgium Race Weekend featured Max and Daniel heading off into the break in a helicopter with what was widely seen as a hard launch to their partnership.

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Monday, July 29th - Milton Keynes

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We then headed into THE Monday meeting. By the time the summer evening was starting to set over the Red Bull campus in Milton Keynes - we started to hear the news that despite talks of shootouts being lined up over the summer, hard launches on social media, and EVEN promises to Max’s family... Red Bull had decided to keep with the same line ups for the remainder of this season. They stood behind Sergio Perez.

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Why did Red Bull decide to keep Checo? What changed within one day?

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In this the first of a two part Red Bull and Visa CashApp RB special, we are going to be looking at the reasons why Red Bull have selected their line up and debunk some theories on the way. Then, in the next article, we will dive into why Visa Cashapp RB did the same for theirs. 

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Was Liberty Media a factor?

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So let's just address the elephant in the room - which is, of course, the involvement of Liberty Media.

Late into the night, after the announcement from Christian Horner, we started hearing stories that Liberty Media had directly intervened with the negotiations protecting their commercial interests with the upcoming Mexican Grand Prix.

They asked Red Bull to keep Checo for ONLY that reason - fearful of the damage it would cause.

First of all, it should be pointed out that this statement is absolutely correct in terms of money and PR. Having no Checo in Mexico, and the other USA races - where Checo enjoys MASSIVE support - would be damaging.

However, I do not believe they have interfered in team driver selection.

If found to be true, the fall out from this scandal would be so huge and could even lead to Liberty Media losing the commercial rights for F1 with the teams and the FIA. No doubt, this would unite the two bodies in their uproar of a commercial rights group overstepping their mark.

Secondly, there is no evidence promoted in this story, nor is there any gain for Red Bull. The prize money & commercial money are heavily regulated and shared with the teams so they would know if there was anything awry in the financial sector.... That's not to say that Liberty Media hasn't shared their thoughts and concerns with Red Bull leadership and investors, but to believe they have directly made the request just feels wide of the mark here - especially when you look at all the other evidence.

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Conclusion - Almost certainly not

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Following Red Bull's Money Trail

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The Post- Dietrich Mateschitz Era

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Let's go back to back to the title of the article and follow the money to find the answer. Let's start with the changes at Red Bull that have happened since the passing of their founder Dietrich Mateschitz, back in 2022.

Dietrich was a racer at heart and enjoyed a close relationship with Christian Horner and Red Bull - often discussing the team and driver moves personally before deciding with the team. He had a reputation of changing Red Bull's drivers at the drop of a hat.

When he died, the structure changed. In came a motorsport board instead - growing talk of tensions as the team adapted to a new way of doing things with the introduction of Chief Executive Officer, Oliver Mintzlaff to the parent company Red Bull GMBH. He was tasked with overseeing the sports partnerships and Red Bull Media House. Suddenly, there was a different way of working for Red Bull - especially with the creation of Red Bull Advanced Technologies, tasked with building the Red Bull Powertrain engines that come into effect in 2026 with Ford.

The fun loving energy drink company that founded a team 20 years ago are now a powertrain supplier in F1. 

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Why does Red Bull Powertrain impact keeping a driver who isn't performing?

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That investment needs returns and, ultimately, funding. While Checo may not be performing on track... in terms of value for money he is over-performing some may say.

Checo commands a salary of around $10M, according to latest reports, and signed a new deal this year for a number of years. Almost all of the contracts will have clauses in them relating to performance - however, for Checo, these will be different.

Checo brings with him a huge level of sponsorship to the team with conservative guesses at the $30m mark with up to 5 or 6 partners that appear on the Red Bull car directly linked to the Mexican Driver. Add into that the commercial sales of Red Bull in areas such as America, which rely on Checo for advertising and promotion of the product, to keep them ahead of Monster.... Suddenly, that figure inflates even more.

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Many of the Red Bull company promotions in the U.S. feature Checo, and he also enjoys a very high profile advertisement relationship with Ford. He is often seen in Ford products, as recently at Goodwood, driving the Ford van up the hill

All of this meaning that his marketing value is even higher than that $30M estimation. 

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Conclusion: Checo brings in far more Red Bull sponsorship money than we could begin to imagine.

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What about Red Bull and Checo's performance in the F1 Championships?

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Surely the poor performance will hurt Red Bull more... What about the championships? What about the prize money?

Yes, there is a risk that staying with the current line up may cost them the constructors championship, with McLaren breathing down their necks. While there is no suggestion that the team want to lose the championship, financially it's not as bad as some suggest.

The prize money difference between 1st and 2nd is estimated to be around $10m. The upside would be an increase in wind tunnel time to develop the 2026 car. You will get more time finishing second than first.

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Why wouldn't Red Bull want to end Checo's contract early?

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The cost of ending contracts mid season would be considerable for the team:

1. Compensation to the driver (buying out of the contract)
2. Sponsors who are linked to Checo would demand compensation or refunds on the entire contract
   1. Especially for those who re-negotiated deals after his new contract was announced
3. Checo has historically performed better in the Non-European second half of the season

All of these factors make a $10M loss in prize money seem... a bit more inconsequential when you factor in all of the numbers.

Most of Checo’s contract clauses will, no doubt, be linked to performance and final standings - not mid season ones. The most telling (yet not talked about) statistic is that last season Checo contributed only 33% of the total Red Bull points - earning both of the World Championship titles.

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How much has Checo earned for Red Bull Racing this year, you might ask? Oh yes, you guessed it.... 33%. If the sponsors and advisors were happy last year, then they're just well and good this year.

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What are other possible reasons that Checo would stay at Red Bull?

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There is, of course, the fact that we don't know if Checo's sponsors may have  agreed to help mitigate that $10M gap if a second place happens financially. It's more beneficial long term to be on the car with him in it.

With regards to the rumor that there is a clause for "Checo being 100 points - or so many places - off Max" we keep hearing about... My view on these is simple. This is likely an end of season clause, not mid-season clauses.

This would also explain the very carefully worded comments from Christian where he said,

“Checo remains a Red Bull Racing driver, despite all the speculations of recent times. We look forward to seeing him perform on circuits where he previously did well, after the summer break.” 

This is a clear message that there will be an end of season review, where changes will be easier and less costly.

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All of this doesn't even take into account what the impact on the other Red Bull team would be as well... which is a major consideration in the Red Bull driver saga that we discuss in part two. Take a look!

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